30 July 2012
Hungary: Market Profile
Major Economic Indicators
|
|
2010 |
2011 estimate |
2012 |
|
Population (million) |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
GDP (US$ billion) |
129 |
140 |
N.A. |
|
GDP Per Capita (US$) |
12,800 |
14,100 |
N.A. |
|
Real GDP Growth (%) |
1.3 |
1.7 |
-0.3 (forecast) |
|
Inflation (%) |
4.9 |
3.9 |
5.6 (Jun) |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
11.2 |
10.9 |
10.9 (May) |
|
Exports (goods, US$ billion) |
91 |
111 |
43 (Jan-May) |
|
Growth rate (%) |
+14 |
+17 |
-7 (Jan-May) |
|
Imports (goods, US$ billion) |
87 |
102 |
40 (Jan-May) |
|
Growth rate (%) |
+14 |
+16 |
-6 (Jan-May) |
|
Exchange Rate : US$1 to 227.09 Hungarian forints on 27 July 2012 |
|||
Recent Developments
- Hungary has been a member of the EU since May 2004, and it has adopted the EU’s common external trade policy and measures.
- Upon the expiry of the textile safeguard quotas by the end of 2007, a joint system with China had been established to monitor EU imports of Chinese textiles and apparel, which was scheduled to operate for one year, covering 8 out of the 10 previously restricted categories. Starting 1 January 2009, textile and clothing products originating in China no longer require any import licence or surveillance document before entering the EU.
- The EU’s scheme on generalised system of preferences (“GSP”) entered into effect on 1 January 2009, and has been extended to remain in force until 31 December 2013 (or until such time as the next Regulation becomes applicable, whichever comes first). While the Chinese mainland remains a beneficiary, it is among the group of to-be-excluded countries, which also includes India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia and Russia, while Chinese mainland exports of, among other product categories, toys, electrical equipment, footwear, textiles, wooden articles, and watches and clocks have already been excluded from the preferential treatment.
- A number of Chinese mainland-origin products are subject to EU’s anti-dumping duties, including bicycles, candles, fasteners, ironing boards and saddles, which are of interest to Hong Kong exporters.
- Hong Kong’s total exports to Hungary grew by 2% to US$559 million in the first half of 2012, while its imports from Hungary increased by 3% to US$131 million.
- The rebound of the export in early 2011 led the Hungarian economy to grow 1.7% last year. For now, consumer demand, given the sticky labour market, VAT hikes and rising inflation, remains stagnant, while investment is hampered by persistent credit supply constraints. In all, Hungary, struggling with the European sovereign debt spiral and slowing exports, is forecast to see GDP decline slightly at a pace of 0.3% in 2012.
Current Economic Situation
Thanks largely to the export rebound in early 2011, the Hungarian economy saw slightly faster growth of 1.7% last year. Despite a 19% increase in minimum wage and large personal income tax cuts from a progressive system (17%-32%) to a flat rate of 16%, domestic demand has shown signs of stagnation in recent months due to uncertain employment prospects, VAT hikes and rising inflation. Persistent credit supply constraints and the introduction of new taxes such as the financial transaction tax have curbed investor sentiment amid the continuing European sovereign debt spiral, while further fiscal consolidation measures have also put tighter rein on public spending, not to mention the dark clouds due to slowing exports.
For 2012, the Hungarian economy is forecast to see a GDP decline of 0.3%. Uncertainties about further belt-tightening measures to correct the substantial fiscal loosening in 2010 and 2011 are suppressing consumer demand, aggravated by the chronically high unemployment and curtailed credit access. Meanwhile, businesses continue to keep investment on a tight leash, given the harsh financing conditions, uncertain earnings outlook and expected slowdown in utilisation of existing capacity due to slowing exports.
Trade Policy
Hungary is a member of the EU, and it follows EU’s common external trade policy and measures.
Textiles and Clothing
Hong Kong’s textiles and clothing exports to the EU were previously subject to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC), under which quantitative restrictions on textiles and clothing were eliminated completely on 1 January 2005.
Likewise, the previous quotas imposed by the EU on textiles and clothing products originating from the Chinese mainland were removed on 1 January 2005. However, as a result of the EU-China agreement reached in June 2005, the EU imposed safeguard quotas on 10 categories of Chinese textile products for the period of 2005-2007. Upon the expiry of the textile safeguard quotas by the end of 2007, a joint system with China was established to monitor EU imports of Chinese textiles and apparel for one year, covering 8 out of the 10 previously restricted categories.
Starting 1 January 2009, textile and clothing products originating in China no longer require any import licence or surveillance document before entering the EU.
Non-textile Manufacturing Products
Previously, the EU also imposed Union-wide quotas on three categories of non-textile products originating from the Chinese mainland, including certain footwear, porcelain and ceramic tableware/kitchenware. But these quotas were liberalised on 1 January 2005.
Scheme of Generalised Tariff Preferences
The EU’s scheme on generalised system of preferences (“GSP”) entered into effect on 1 January 2009, and has been extended to remain in force until 31 December 2013 (or until such time as the next Regulation becomes applicable, whichever comes first). While the Chinese mainland remains a beneficiary, it is among the group of to-be-excluded countries, which also includes India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia and Russia, while Chinese mainland exports of, among other product categories, toys, electrical equipment, footwear, textiles, wooden articles, and watches and clocks have already been excluded from the preferential treatment. Regarding Hong Kong, the territory has been fully excluded from the EU’s GSP scheme since 1 May 1998.
Anti-dumping Measures
The EU has initiated anti-dumping (AD) proceedings against certain mainland-origin products. Currently, there are a number of mainland-origin items subject to EU’s anti-dumping measures, including bicycles (at a duty rate of 48.5%), fasteners (27.4%-85.0%), ironing boards (42.3%) and saddles (29.6%), which are among the affected products of interest to Hong Kong. As at the end of 2011, the EU did not apply any AD measures on imports from Hong Kong.
Other Measures
To combat the spread of the Asian longhorn beetle, the EU introduced in July 1999 emergency controls on wooden packaging material originating in the Chinese mainland. Wood covered by the measures must be stripped of its bark and free of insect bore holes greater than 3mm across, or have been kiln-dried to below 20% moisture content.
For health reasons, the EU has adopted a Directive on the control of the use of nickel in objects intended to be in contact with the skin, such as watches and jewellery. Following the emergency ban adopted in December 1999, the EU has adopted a Directive to ban the use of some phthalates in certain PVC toys and childcare articles on a permanent basis, which will come into effect from 16 January 2007. In addition, the EU has adopted a Directive to prohibit from September 2003 the trading of clothing, footwear and other textile and leather articles which contain azo-dyes, from which aromatic amines may be derived.
On the other hand, the EU has adopted a number of Directives for environmental protection, which may have an impact on the sales of a wide range of consumer goods and consumer electronics. Notable examples include the Directive on Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) implemented in August 2005, and the Directive on Restriction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS) implemented in July 2006. On 3 December 2008, the European Commission (EC) presented two proposals: one for a recast RoHS Directive and the other for a recast WEEE Directive.
The recast RoHS Directive was published on 1 July 2011. It will have to be implemented throughout the EU-27 as of 2 January 2013. The new Directive will continue to prohibit EEE that contains the same six dangerous substances as the old RoHS Directive. Nonetheless, the new Directive will widen, as from 22 July 2019, the current scope of the previous RoHS Directive, by including any EEE that will have fallen out of the old RoHS Directive’s scope, with only limited exceptions.
Another important law for Hong Kong companies to grapple with concerns waste EEE, i.e., the WEEE Directive. Under the recast, the new rules will include higher WEEE collection targets and broader scope of measure. Subject to European Council’s approval, the new WEEE Directive is expected to enter into force in the summer of 2012, while member states will have 18 months after to transpose the directive into national law.
On the heels of the recast RoHS Directive and the soon-to-be adopted recast WEEE Directive, the EU’s new framework Directive for setting eco-design requirements for energy-related product (ErP) is now in place. The ErP Directive is no longer limited to only EEE (as it was under its predecessor, the energy-using product, or EuP, Directive), but potentially covers any product that is related to the use of energy, including shower heads and other bathroom fittings, as well as insulation and construction materials.
Moreover, REACH, an EU Regulation which stands for Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals, entered into force in June 2007. Among others, it requires EU manufacturers and importers of chemical substances (whether on their own, in preparations or in certain articles) to gather comprehensive information on properties of their substances produced or imported in volumes of 1 tonne or more per year, and to register such substances prior to manufacturing in or import into the EU.
Following the entry into force of the new Toy Safety Directive (Directive 2009/48/EC) on 20 July 2011, the Official Journal of the EU published on 11 August 2011 references to two important safety standards concerning electric toys (EN 62115:2005 and its amendment EN 62115:2005/A2:2011) and two previous standards on the mechanical and physical properties of toys and a standard on the flammability of toys.
Hong Kong’s Trade with Hungary ^
Hungary is the second largest export market of Hong Kong in Central and Eastern Europe, after only Russia. Hong Kong’s total exports to Hungary grew by 2% to US$559 million in the first half of 2012, after a decrease of 12% to US$1.2 billion in 2011. Major export items during January-June 2012 included telecommunications equipment & parts (shared 47% of the total), electrical apparatus for electrical circuits (14%), electric power machinery & parts (8%), semi-conductors, electronic valves & tubes (7%), parts and accessories of office machines/computers (5%), computers (3%) and electrical machinery & apparatus (3%).
Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s imports from Hungary increased by 3% to US$131 million in the first half of 2012, after a 34% growth to US$268 million in 2011. Leading import items from Hungary during January-June 2012 included computers (shared 29% of the total), telecommunications equipment & parts (28%), parts and accessories of office machines/computers (20%), fresh, chilled or frozen meat & edible meat offal (3%), electric power machinery & parts (3%) and prepared or preserved meat and edible meat offal (3%).
|
|
2011 |
January-June 2012 |
||
|
(US$ million) |
Value |
Growth (%) |
Value |
Growth (%) |
|
Total Exports |
1,153 |
-12 |
559 |
+2 |
|
Domestic Exports |
2 |
+49 |
1 |
+43 |
|
Re-exports |
1,151 |
-12 |
558 |
+2 |
|
Imports |
268 |
+34 |
131 |
+3 |
|
of which re-exported |
294 |
+50 |
145 |
+8 |
|
Total Trade |
1,421 |
-6 |
690 |
+2 |
^ Since offshore trade has not been recorded by ordinary trade figures, these numbers do not necessarily reflect the export business managed by Hong Kong companies.
